News Failures Platform

News Failure Detection with a trading edge.

Institutional-grade analytics that identify when commodity futures, futures indices, bonds, economic reports, and macro events move opposite to fundamental news surprises. Detect anomalies before the crowd reacts.

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See NewsFailures in Action

Watch the full walkthrough — from spotting a news failure to reading the signal and understanding the trade setup.

Historical Failure Timeline chart showing 1-day returns across commodities from 2020 to 2026
Economic Events Analysis showing event data, news failures, and failure rate
WASDE News Failures table showing recent commodity news failure detections with surprise data and market reactions
360+
WASDE Reactions Tracked
127
News Failures Detected
17
Markets Monitored
Live
Real-Time Analysis
Core Capabilities

Why Traders Use NewsFailures

Automated detection of market anomalies that discretionary traders miss.

A news failure happens when price refuses to behave the way it "should" after a headline. If bad news comes out and a stock, commodity, or currency doesn't go down — or even rallies — that's a sign sellers may be exhausted. If great news hits and price can't go up, that's often a sign buyers are already fully committed.

In simple terms, news failures reveal when expectations are already priced in and the market is quietly turning. Instead of reacting to the headline, we focus on the reaction to the headline — because turning points often begin when price stops responding to news the way the crowd expects.

W

WASDE Report Analysis

Automatic parsing of monthly USDA reports. Compares projected vs. actual ending stocks and maps surprises to 1-day price reactions.

NF

News Failure Alerts

Instant detection when price moves opposite to the news surprise. Bullish data + falling price = News Failure, and vice versa.

EC

Economic Event Coverage

Monitors CPI, NFP, EIA inventories, PPI, and 60+ macro events. Maps each to the correct instrument with sentiment rules.

RT

Real-time Market Pulse

Live price monitoring across 17 markets with auto-refreshing failure status during market hours.

BT

Historical Backtesting

Six years of WASDE data (2020-2026) with price reactions. Validate news failure patterns before trading them.

AP

Automated Pipeline

Scheduler triggers on WASDE release days at 12:05 PM ET. Daily economic analysis runs at 8 AM. Fully hands-off.

Wisdom

What the Market Wizards Say

The greatest traders in history have recognized the power of news failures.

Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager
"When the news is wonderful and a market can't go up, then you want to be sure to be short."
Michael Marcus Featured in Market Wizards
The New Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager
"Bad news was starting to lose its impact on the market — bearish news stories would come out, and stocks would essentially lie flat."
Victor Sperandeo Featured in The New Market Wizards
Unknown Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager
"But if they are all super bearish, and some really negative news came out that day, but the market closes higher, I'm buying."
Jason Shapiro Featured in Unknown Market Wizards

Start detecting News Failures today

Join traders who use quantitative news failure signals to find high-probability reversal setups.

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Simple Pricing

One plan. Full access.
No hidden fees. Cancel anytime.

Everything you need to detect News Failures across stocks, bonds, commodities, futures, options, and currencies.

Professional
$59 /mo
Full access for commodity and macro traders
  • ✓
    WASDE News Failure Dashboard
    Automatic detection every month across 17 markets.
  • ✓
    60+ Economic Events Covered
    CPI, NFP, EIA, PPI, ISM and more — mapped to the right instrument.
  • ✓
    Commodity Deep-Dive Analytics
    Full history of surprises, failures, and price reactions since 2020.
  • ✓
    Real-Time Market Pulse
    Live prices across all instruments, auto-refreshing during market hours.
  • ✓
    360+ WASDE Reactions Tracked
    6 years of historical data to validate signals before you trade.
  • ✓
    Fully Automated Pipeline
    Signals appear within minutes of every WASDE and economic release.
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From the Blog

Research-Backed Trading Insights

In-depth analysis of news failure patterns across NFP, FOMC, WASDE, and 60+ economic catalysts — backed by data, not guesswork.

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How to Trade News Failures: A Systematic Approach to Fading Economic Surprises

Setup, signal confirmation, historical edge, position sizing, and risk management — everything you need to build a repeatable news failure process.

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The NFP Trade Nobody Talks About: When Strong Jobs Numbers Don't Rally the Market

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